Camilla Jessen
Mounting pressure from Chinese competitors and lower-than-expected production figures could trigger a sharp drop in Tesla’s stock, HSBC analysts warn.
Tesla’s reputation as the king of electric vehicles may be headed for a serious reckoning.
With its stock still trading at towering levels, HSBC is now sounding the alarm: when Tesla unveils its first-quarter results for 2025, the numbers might fall far short of expectations—and the fallout could be swift.
According to Boosted and Electrek, HSBC analysts are warning that a combination of underwhelming delivery figures and fierce competition from Chinese automaker BYD could spark a significant selloff in Tesla shares.
While Wall Street has been expecting deliveries around 464,000 vehicles, HSBC estimates a more conservative 385,000—and in the worst-case scenario, as low as 343,000.
From Market Leader to Margin Pressure
Tesla’s market dominance has rarely been questioned.
At its height, the company’s valuation soared past that of every other automaker combined. Even after a recent dip, Tesla is still worth more than the next ten biggest car manufacturers put together.
But HSBC’s concern isn’t about Elon Musk’s social media presence or public image. It’s about the numbers.
What’s worrying is that Tesla itself has already tempered expectations, forecasting deliveries of 377,000 vehicles for the quarter—an estimate that leans uncomfortably close to HSBC’s lowest projections. If that figure is confirmed or falls even further, it could deliver a jolt to investors who have remained bullish despite warning signs.
China’s BYD Turns Up the Heat
Tesla’s problems aren’t just internal. BYD, the Chinese EV juggernaut that overtook Tesla as the world’s largest electric car maker, is applying relentless pressure. Fresh off record-setting results for 2024, BYD is aggressively expanding into international markets—challenging Tesla not only in volume but also on price and innovation.
The contrast between BYD’s momentum and Tesla’s slowing growth paints a picture of a shifting global EV landscape. As HSBC analysts put it, this competitive imbalance could expose Tesla’s vulnerabilities just as production struggles begin to weigh more heavily on investor confidence.
Investors on Edge Ahead of Earnings
The stakes are high for Tesla’s upcoming quarterly report.
A delivery gap of over 100,000 cars between market expectations and actual results would not only be a blow to investor sentiment—it could cast doubt on Tesla’s long-term trajectory.