Can Trump Deliver on His Promise to End the Ukraine Conflict?

During his 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump claimed he could end Russia’s war against Ukraine within 24 hours.

"I will have the deal done in one day," he said.

This bold claim, though characteristic of Trump, raised questions about its feasibility amidst the largest war in Europe since World War II.

A Pivotal Campaign Promise

Trump's promise to end the war became a cornerstone of his campaign. Following his election victory on November 6, he avoided mentioning Ukraine in his speech but hinted at the significance of his upcoming term for the war-torn country.

Zelenskyy’s Response to Trump’s Victory

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy congratulated Trump in a post, recalling their meeting in September.
“I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ approach in global affairs,” Zelenskyy wrote, expressing cautious optimism.

A Revised Timeline for Peace

Initially promising a resolution in 24 hours, Trump has now adjusted the timeline to six months. This shift reflects a more realistic approach, which some experts believe is a positive sign for Ukraine.

Why the 24-Hour Plan Was Worrisome

Former Ukrainian Economy Minister Tymofiy Mylovanov described Trump’s 24-hour scenario as the worst possible outcome.

"The US would likely pressure Ukraine to accept Russian demands without having sufficient leverage over Russia," Mylovanov explained to Euronews.

A Six-Month Plan: Building Leverage

Trump’s revised timeline suggests an intention to build leverage over Russia. According to Mylovanov, this signals a strategic shift that may align with current US efforts to confiscate Russian assets frozen since the invasion.

Confiscating Russian Assets

The Biden administration’s efforts to seize $300 billion in Russian Central Bank assets could strengthen the West’s position.
“This coordination sends a message to Russia: we’re willing to haggle over your frozen funds,” Mylovanov said.

Not Favourable for Russia

The Trump administration’s evolving strategy appears less favourable for Russia.
“This is good news for Ukraine,” Mylovanov noted, though uncertainties remain about Trump’s long-term stance.

Concerns in Ukraine

Many Ukrainians fear Trump might “sell them out.”
While Mylovanov acknowledged these concerns, he argued that Ukraine is in a “pretty good space,” considering the circumstances.

Trump’s Neutral Stance on Victory

During a debate, Trump avoided answering whether he wanted Ukraine to win.
"I want the war to stop," he stated, leaving doubts about his true position.

What is Acceptable for Ukrainians?

Surveys show Ukrainians are unwilling to cede unoccupied territories, disarm, or amend their constitution.

However, many are open to temporarily accepting a de facto reality of contested territories, Mylovanov explained.

Challenges in Negotiations

For Putin, any deal must be presented domestically as a victory.
For Ukraine, it must guarantee protection against future invasions.
Any agreement allowing Russia to return and claim more territory is unacceptable.

Trust Issues with Russia

Given Russia’s history of breaking guarantees, any new pledge would need to go far beyond a signed document.
"The stakes are higher than ever," Mylovanov emphasized.

Is Trump’s Plan Good Enough for Ukraine?

Trump’s evolving approach shows potential but raises critical questions.

Will his strategy provide Ukraine with the security and justice it demands? Or will it leave the door open for further conflict?

The world is watching.