EU: Unstable Ceasefire Could Backfire, Allow Russia to Regroup

Written by Camilla Jessen

Mar.20 - 2025 11:55 AM CET

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Photo: kremlin.ru / Wikimedia Commons
Photo: kremlin.ru / Wikimedia Commons
Dombrovskis stated that peace must be just and lasting—not merely a pause for Russian rearmament.

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European Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis voiced strong support for the pursuit of peace in Ukraine during a visit to Kyiv on March 20—but warned that an unstable ceasefire could give Russia the breathing room it needs to prepare for a new offensive.

At a press briefing, Dombrovskis said the European Union welcomes progress in the push for a ceasefire.

But he also emphasized that not all peace deals are equal.

“The European Union welcomes the movement towards a ceasefire within the framework of the peace process. We have always stressed that we need a just and lasting peace, not a 'peace' that simply allows Russia to regroup,” the Commissioner stated, as cited by Ukrinform.

Dombrovskis cautioned that any unreliable truce could become a strategic pause for Moscow.

“An unstable truce will allow Russia to prepare for a new stage of aggression against Ukraine or an attack on other European countries,” he warned.

Ceasefire Talks Spark Cautious Optimism—And Skepticism

The Commissioner also reiterated a point long held by Ukraine and its allies: no negotiations can be held about Ukraine without Ukraine at the table.

“Negotiations on Ukraine cannot take place without Ukraine’s participation,” he emphasized. “These are the principles we adhere to regarding peace negotiations.”

His comments come amid growing international efforts to broker a ceasefire.

On March 18, U.S. President Donald Trump held a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, after which the White House claimed Russia had agreed to a limited ceasefire, specifically on attacks against Ukraine’s energy and civilian infrastructure.

However, that same night, waves of drone strikes hit multiple Ukrainian regions, including a direct hit on a hospital in Sumy.

“Russia, which shelled Ukraine’s energy and civilian infrastructure immediately after the announcement of Trump and Putin’s agreement… cannot be trusted,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said following the attack.

Kyiv Calls for Guarantees, Not Just Words

Following his own phone conversation with Trump, Zelenskyy confirmed that Ukraine had agreed to a limited ceasefire concerning civilian infrastructure—but he also made it clear that Moscow continues its strikes and that such agreements mean little without enforcement.

He proposed an international no-strike list of protected sites, to be overseen by partners like the U.S., and suggested reciprocity: Ukraine would halt retaliatory strikes if Russia holds to the same standard.

Zelenskyy also expressed hope that further progress could be made during upcoming talks in Saudi Arabia, part of ongoing international mediation efforts.