According to a report by the German newspaper Bild, European intelligence sources have raised concerns that Russia may launch an attack on Europe during the winter of 2024-2025.
This potential aggression is contingent on the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, particularly if the United States finds itself "without a leader" following the election.
The Presidential Transition Period as a Window of Opportunity
The intelligence source suggests that Russia could seize the opportunity during the three-month presidential transition period in the U.S., spanning from the November 2024 election to the inauguration in January 2025.
The risk is heightened if President Joe Biden does not secure re-election and former President Donald Trump, known for his criticism of aid levels to Kyiv, is re-elected.
Impact on European Security and NATO
The report indicates that Russia's potential attack would target Europe during this transition, with delayed assistance expected from the U.S. President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has previously expressed concerns about how the 2024 U.S. presidential election could significantly influence the course of Russia's war against Ukraine.
Warnings from Think Tanks and Security Agencies
The German think tank DGAP has issued warnings to Western nations about a possible direct attack by Russia against NATO within six to 10 years.
Meanwhile, Poland's national security agency estimates a more urgent timeline, suggesting that Russia could attack NATO in less than 36 months.
Polish officials have speculated that Russia might target NATO members in Eastern Europe, including Poland, Estonia, Romania, and Lithuania.
