According to a report by Foreign Policy, drawing on information from Estonian intelligence officials, the Kremlin is currently revamping and expanding its military forces in anticipation of a possible confrontation with NATO within the next decade.
This revelation comes in the wake of perceived underestimations of the Russian army's capabilities following Vladimir Putin's failure to secure a swift victory in Ukraine, a sentiment echoed by experts and political circles in Washington and Western Europe.
A Turning Tide for Putin
"However, the tide appears to be turning in Putin's favor as the conflict enters its third year," Foreign Policy notes.
The publication details significant developments such as the sidelining of Alexei Navalny, a stall in US military aid to Ukraine due to congressional deadlock, and Russia's pivot towards a wartime economy bolstered by increased defense production. Despite facing international sanctions, Russia has also managed to achieve economic growth.
Estonian Intelligence's Warning
Kaupo Rosin, the Director General of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, expressed that from Russia's perspective, "everything is going more or less according to plan."
He highlighted that Russian military leadership has been quick to learn from the initial missteps at the war's outset, adapting their strategies and operations at an unprecedented rate. "It seems that the Russians are essentially transforming into an organization perfecting the army," Rosin remarked, emphasizing the rapid evolution and modernization of the Russian military.
The Path to Deterrence
Rosin stressed that a conflict between Russia and NATO is not a foregone conclusion, pointing out that the West can take more decisive actions to deter Moscow's aggressive posturing. "Many future scenarios depend on our actions in the West," he stated, underscoring the importance of Western support for Ukraine.
"The specific task is to ensure Ukraine's success in this war because the future of Europe largely depends on the outcome of this war," the Estonian intelligence head concluded, highlighting the critical stakes involved in the ongoing conflict and the necessity for concerted efforts to support Ukraine against Russian aggression.
