Russia is facing growing problems with its supply of missiles and long-range aircraft, according to Ukrainian military expert Kostantyn Krywolap.
Krywolap believes these shortages are likely to lead to increased use of kamikaze drones in strikes against Ukraine.
In an interview with Ukrainian Radio, as reported by WP Tech, Krywolap said that the decline in missile usage and the relocation of strategic bombers suggest the Russian military is struggling to maintain its arsenal.
“They’ve had to move Tu-95 bombers from Russia’s east to the front lines,” he noted, adding that this likely indicates logistical or supply problems within Russia’s long-range strike capabilities.
Fewer Missiles, New Tactics
According to Krywolap, Russia has notably reduced its use of Kh-101 cruise missiles, and has not launched any Kh-47 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles in recent attacks. In one instance, an Iskander missile was fired at the city of Kryvyi Rih, but the overall picture points to a conservation strategy.
“This might be a tactic to preserve remaining missile stockpiles,” Krywolap suggested.
He predicts that, as a result, Russia will likely intensify its use of Shahed drones, as they allow Moscow to continue its air attacks while conserving its more expensive and harder-to-replace missiles.
While Krywolap didn’t name specific drone models, the Iranian-made Shahed-136 is widely used by Russian forces. These unmanned drones are cheap to produce, costing roughly $20,000 each, and have a simple design that makes them easy to build in large numbers.
With a wingspan of 2.5 meters, the Shahed-136 can carry up to 40 kg of explosives and fly at speeds of around 185 km/h, powered by a Limbach L550E engine. Though not highly advanced, their low cost and mass production make them a persistent threat in the war.
Recent data indicates that Russia has dramatically increased Shahed drone production.
In the first half of 2024, around 2,277 units were launched.
Then, from August to October, that number surged to over 4,300 drones. In October alone, Russia reportedly launched more than 2,000 Shaheds.
