U.S. intelligence reports suggest that Russia is unlikely to use nuclear weapons, even after Washington decided to let Ukraine strike deeper into Russian territory using American-made weapons.
According to Reuters on November 27, five anonymous sources familiar with the intelligence have confirmed that the risk of nuclear escalation remains low.
This update comes after Russian President Vladimir Putin revised the country’s nuclear policy on November 19.
Russian officials criticized the U.S. move, calling it a dangerous escalation. However, U.S. intelligence assessments over the last seven months consistently show that these actions are unlikely to make Russia change its approach to nuclear weapons.
A key concern has been the U.S. decision to send ATACMS missiles to Ukraine, which allows Kyiv to target deeper into Russian territory. President Joe Biden approved their use in mid-November to strengthen Ukraine's position in any future peace talks. While there were initial fears this could provoke Russia, intelligence reports suggest the missiles don’t significantly affect Russia’s nuclear strategy.
“The assessments were consistent: The ATACMS weren’t going to change Russia’s nuclear calculus,” said a congressional aide briefed on the intelligence.
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Earlier, the Biden administration hesitated to provide such weapons, fearing they might escalate tensions. But growing challenges on the battlefield and the need to support Ukraine's defense swayed the decision.
While nuclear risks remain low, experts warn Russia may ramp up other aggressive actions.
Moscow is expected to increase sabotage efforts targeting European infrastructure to pressure Western countries supporting Ukraine, according to U.S. officials and lawmakers.
Growing Challenges for Ukraine
Ukraine faces tough challenges ahead.
Reports suggest North Korea is sending troops to aid Russia, and former U.S. President Donald Trump—set to take office in January—has promised to end the war within 24 hours. However, many fear that Trump’s administration might reduce U.S. support for Ukraine, leaving it vulnerable to Russia.
Pressure is also mounting for a diplomatic solution. A Washington Post report on November 26 revealed that U.S. officials think Ukraine might have to start peace talks within months, which could involve giving up some territory to end the conflict.
For now, the U.S. hopes advanced weapons like the ATACMS will help Ukraine strengthen its position as these challenges unfold.
