Allan Lichtman, the historian often dubbed the "Nostradamus of Presidential Elections," has predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the White House in the upcoming 2024 election.
Succesfully Predicted Since 1984
Lichtman has successfully predicted every U.S. presidential election since 1984, with the exception of the 2000 contest between George W. Bush and Al Gore, which was decided by the Supreme Court. Now, he says Donald Trump is set to lose again, according to Hotnews
Lichtman’s forecasts are based on 13 "keys," a set of true/false criteria, which he uses to gauge the likelihood of a candidate's victory.
"Despite previously warning Democrats about the risks of replacing Joe Biden as their nominee, Lichtman now believes Harris, who took over the candidacy after Biden stepped down in July, will win the election. He made the prediction in a video for The New York Times.
“Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States—at least that’s my prediction for this race,” Lichtman, 77, said in the seven-minute video. He added, “But the outcome depends on you. So go out and vote.”
Trump Still have Advantages
Harris benefits from a strong set of indicators in Lichtman’s model, including economic gains, major legislative achievements by the Biden administration, and the absence of significant social unrest or scandals within the White House. The lack of a major primary challenge also strengthens her position.
While Trump may still have some advantages in foreign policy, Lichtman’s formula suggests it won’t be enough to secure him a win.
Lichtman famously predicted Trump’s 2016 victory, even when most polls pointed to a Clinton win, and he correctly anticipated Trump’s impeachment—twice—during his presidency.
