Historical patterns often resurface when empires face internal decay and external pressures.
Russia, once perceived as a stronghold under Vladimir Putin, is now showing cracks that echo the Soviet Union's collapse in 1989.
The ongoing war in Ukraine, strategic failures in Syria, and diminishing influence globally suggest a pivotal moment for the Kremlin.
Putin’s management is under scrutiny
Putin's rule, marked by 25 years of centralized power and aggressive foreign policies, has started to falter under the weight of military losses and economic strain.
Analysts compare Russia’s current trajectory to that of past empires that crumbled from overreach and mismanagement, according to Ziare.
Like Rome and the Habsburgs, Russia struggles with unsustainable wars and growing dissatisfaction at its fringes.
The war in Ukraine has proven costly, not just in resources but in reputation.
Parts of Russian territory remain contested, the Black Sea Fleet has suffered significant blows, and the economy faces inflation, labor shortages, and rising bankruptcies.
Additionally, Moscow’s failures in Syria — once a symbol of its global reach — have further eroded its standing.
Russian ultranationalists now refer to Syria as "our catastrophe," reflecting a growing disillusionment within Putin’s base.
Domestically, Putin’s management is under scrutiny.
The sidelining of Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin and the loss of mercenary operations in Africa and the Middle East have undermined Russia’s opportunistic war economy.
Allies like Iran and Turkey have become wary, while adversaries like Israel have capitalized on Moscow's weaknesses in Syria.
The prospect of a weakened Putin poses challenges and opportunities for global leaders. President-elect Donald Trump, preparing for his second term, may face a Kremlin leader more isolated than ever.
Trump's diplomatic strategy, whether conciliatory or confrontational, could redefine the U.S.-Russia dynamic and potentially shape the endgame in Ukraine.
As Russia grapples with its vulnerabilities, parallels to the Soviet collapse grow starker.
The question now is whether Putin can navigate these challenges or if his empire, like others before it, will succumb to its internal fractures.
