The Russian Air Force, despite suffering proportionally fewer losses than the ground forces, is facing a severe crisis.
A Downward Trajectory
According to Tech the ongoing war in Ukraine has accelerated the long-standing degradation of Russian military equipment and capabilities, with the defense industry struggling to keep pace with the losses.
Even before the invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Air Force was on a downward trajectory. Its fleet is composed mainly of aging aircraft, and despite propaganda claims, Russian design bureaus and factories are unable to supply replacements for the planes designed during the Soviet era.
According to Defence 24 expert Maciej Szopa, out of the approximately 1,200 aircraft in service, 550 are nearing the end of their life cycles. These aircraft, including the Su-24, Su-25, Su-27, MiG-29, and MiG-31, are extensively worn out, having spent countless hours in the air, pushing the limits of their structural durability.
Ukrainian estimates indicate that Russia employs around 300 different types of aircraft daily in its operations. Szopa's analysis suggests that considering the operational readiness of the fleet, Russia has committed the majority of its combat aircraft to the conflict.
Current Combat-Ready Aircraft
The actual number of combat-ready aircraft in Russia is estimated to be around 850. Of these, approximately 340-360 planes, produced after 2010 (including models like the Su-30, Su-34, Su-35, and Su-57, along with older strategic bombers), are considered modern and capable of effective combat in hypothetical confrontations with NATO countries.
However, independent of the damage or losses incurred in battle, due to wear and tear, Russia will need to retire around 60 aircraft this year alone.
Production Challenges
Furthermore, at least 12 aircraft have been destroyed by Ukrainian forces in the first half of the year, with photographic evidence confirming these losses. In contrast, in 2022, the Russian defense industry produced only 27 new combat aircraft. The production numbers dropped to 24 in 2023, and as of mid-2024, only six new aircraft have been produced.
The number of aircraft being retired and destroyed far exceeds the production capabilities of the Russian defense industry, leading to a systematic decline in the potential of the Russian Air Force.
