Analysis Reveals Russia's Arms Supply Will Dwindle Soon

Written by Kathrine Frich

Sep.11 - 2024 12:06 PM CET

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Photo: Shutterstock
Photo: Shutterstock
. It is estimated that 80% of the tanks and armored vehicles produced are upgraded versions of older models.

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Recent analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reveals that Russia has significantly ramped up its military equipment production in the second quarter of 2024 compared to late 2022.

Increase in Tank and Other Productions

This increase comes as the conflict in Ukraine continues, with experts dismissing earlier concerns that Russia would run out of weapon supplies by the end of 2024.

According to ISW, Russia has notably increased its production of drones, specifically the "Lancet" series, by an astonishing 475%, jumping from 93 to 535 units per quarter, according to WP.

Tank production has also surged by 215%, rising from 123 to 387 units, while short-range air defense systems have seen a 200% increase from nine to 38 units.

Additionally, artillery production has grown by 149%, increasing from 45 to 112 pieces, and armored vehicle output has skyrocketed by 141%, from 585 to 1,409 units.

80% Are Upgraded Versions

The ISW report indicates that much of this increased production is due to the modernization of existing equipment rather than the creation of new machines. It is estimated that 80% of the tanks and armored vehicles produced are upgraded versions of older models.

Looking ahead, ISW experts predict that Russia's weapons supply will begin to dwindle in 2026, as stocks from the Soviet era start to deplete. However, they also anticipate that Russia will open new production lines to counteract any potential shortages in its military supplies.

Among the key military assets being produced are the T-90M tanks and Lancet drones.

The T-90M is known for its advanced features, including a 125mm gun and reactive armor designed to protect against various threats. Each Lancet drone, priced at approximately $35,000, is equipped with a warhead capable of penetrating armored steel up to 215mm thick.

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