In a recent interview with Deutsche Welle, Bruno Kahl, head of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND), raised concerns that Russia may be preparing to test NATO’s collective defense.
In his words, which are quite scary ones, Russia intends to test the unity of the West, especially regarding NATO's collective defense clause, Article 5, which stipulates that an attack on any one member is regarded as an attack on all.
However, Kahl, at the same time, expressed cautious hope that such a scenario would not materialize, according to digi24.ro.
“We very much hope that this is not true and we will not be put in the difficult position of being tested. However, we must assume that Russia wants to test us, to test the unity of the West.”
According to Kahl, the timing of such an attack would not surprisingly be linked to how the conflict in Ukraine unfolds. He explained that if the war concludes earlier than anticipated, possibly before 2029 or 2030, Russia could reallocate its technical, material, and personnel resources to rapidly construct a threat against Europe.
“It is also possible that a concrete threat or blackmail attempt by Russia against Europeans will emerge sooner than previously estimated,” he said.
Kahl further elaborated that an expedited end to the conflict in Ukraine would enable Russia to concentrate its efforts on Europe.
“An early end to the war in Ukraine would allow the Russians to direct their energy towards what they want, namely against Europe,” he said, suggesting that Moscow’s strategic calculations are already underway.
Looking to the future, the BND chief outlined Russia’s vision for a revised global order; a scenario reminiscent of Europe in the late 1990s.
In this envisioned future, NATO’s protective presence would be significantly diminished, paving the way for an expanded Russian sphere of influence in Western Europe, ideally without the counterbalance of an American military presence.
Whether the scenario is nothing but that, a scenario, only time will tell.
