North Korea's military contingent in Russia’s Kursk region may face total annihilation by mid-April, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), as reported by Digi24.ro.
The think tank noted that Pyongyang could struggle to sustain such heavy losses. North Korean troops, deployed to assist Russian forces, are reportedly suffering high casualty rates in battles with Ukraine.
Deployed in November 2024, approximately 12,000 DPRK troops were stationed in Kursk, with initial Pentagon estimates suggesting around 10,000 remained active. However, as of early January, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that 3,800 had already been killed or wounded.
Russian military bloggers indicated that North Korean forces began engaging in heavier combat in December, resulting in an average of 92 casualties per day. ISW projections suggest that, if this trend continues, the entire contingent could be incapacitated by spring.
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Consequences for Russia and North Korea
The potential loss of these troops could significantly hinder Russia's ability to sustain its war effort, according to ISW. Moscow has been relying on external reinforcements, including North Korean soldiers, amid ongoing manpower shortages.
For Pyongyang, the situation presents a dilemma. Analysts suggest North Korea might escalate its involvement by sending more troops to Kursk, a move that could strain its resources further.
Despite training in Russia’s Far East, North Korean forces are inexperienced in modern combat. While they achieved some successes, such as capturing the village of Plehovo in December, their overall vulnerability has been exposed.
A New Chapter for Pyongyang’s Military
This deployment marks North Korea's first combat role since the Korean War, but its forces have faced overwhelming challenges.
If ISW’s predictions hold, North Korea could face a turning point in its alliance with Moscow. As casualties mount, both nations may need to reconsider their strategies.
