The ongoing war in Ukraine has forced global powers to reevaluate their defense strategies and financial commitments.
For the United States, supporting Ukraine is not only about assisting an ally but also about maintaining stability in Europe and countering threats to international security.
Some experts argue that the costs of failing to back Ukraine could far exceed current spending.
Might Challenge NATO Members
A recent report from the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) warns that a Russian victory in Ukraine would lead to significantly increased U.S. defense expenditures.
The think tank estimates that an additional $808 billion would be needed by 2029 to deter and, if necessary, defend against potential Russian aggression toward NATO allies.
This increase would raise the Department of Defense’s current five-year plan from $4.4 trillion to $5.2 trillion, requiring roughly $165 billion more annually, according to Ziare.
According to the report, a successful Russian invasion would embolden Moscow to challenge NATO members, creating a far more dangerous security environment.
The authors argue that investing in Ukraine now is a cost-effective way to prevent larger expenses later.
“Supporting Ukraine is in America’s financial interest,” the report states, emphasizing the long-term benefits of sustaining Kyiv’s defense efforts.
President-elect Donald Trump has suggested multiple approaches to the conflict, including the possibility of increasing or withdrawing aid to push for negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow.
His administration will inherit $3 billion in presidential drawdown authority, enabling the transfer of U.S. military stockpiles to Ukraine without requiring new Congressional approval.
Meanwhile, the Biden administration is preparing a new $500 million military aid package, adding to the $60 billion in total assistance provided since the war began.
Analysts believe that the current level of support, while costly, is far less expensive than dealing with the consequences of a strengthened and emboldened Russia.
Ukraine’s Finance Minister, Serhii Marchenko, has indicated that his country has sufficient resources to sustain its defense through mid-2025.
He emphasized the importance of continued U.S. assistance to ensure Ukraine can maintain its sovereignty and withstand further aggression.
