The Russian military is facing a steep decline in new contract soldiers and volunteers, despite doubling federal signing bonuses and offering significant regional incentives.
According to researcher Janis Kluge from the German Institute for International Security Studies, the army attracted 700 recruits per day in the third quarter, down from 1,020 daily in the second quarter.
The Kremlin increased federal bonuses for new recruits from 195,000 to 400,000 rubles and raised regional payments fivefold to an average of 900,000 rubles.
Despite these efforts, recruitment expenditures have dropped, suggesting fewer new signings.
Second quarter spending: 18.1 billion rubles
Third quarter spending: 16.1 billion rubles (a 12% decrease)
Kluge estimates that recruitment numbers may have fallen to as low as 538 new soldiers daily, marking a dramatic slowdown.
According to NATO estimates, daily Russian casualties have surged to 1,500 soldiers per day, including 300 deaths. This far exceeds the current recruitment rate, highlighting a critical gap in troop replenishment.
Western intelligence and UK Ministry of Defence reports place Russia’s total losses in the war at 610,000 troops — 200,000 killed and 400,000 wounded.
The Pentagon corroborates these figures, estimating 615,000 total casualties.
In contrast, Ukrainian losses, while significant, remain lower.
Estimates suggest 60,000 to 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed and 400,000 wounded, with President Volodymyr Zelensky stating the number of fatalities is below 80,000.
