The battle in Russia’s Kursk region has taken a dire turn for Ukrainian forces, as Russian troops have reportedly broken through front lines and are close to encircling Ukrainian soldiers.
According to HotNews, Russia’s Ministry of Defense announced on Saturday that its forces had retaken the villages of Viktorovka, Nikolaevka, and Staraia Sorocina—previously held by Ukrainian troops.
Ukrainian Troops at Risk of Encirclement
Military maps from open-source intelligence indicate that Ukrainian positions in Kursk have deteriorated rapidly.
Russian forces have been attempting to push Ukrainian troops out of the region since August last year, when Kyiv’s forces launched a cross-border incursion and briefly seized part of Russian territory.
Pro-Russian war blogger Two Majors reported on Telegram that Russian troops have begun an assault on Sudja, a key town about 10 kilometers from the border. He described the situation for Ukrainian forces as "almost critical."
The latest Russian counteroffensive has nearly split Ukrainian positions in two, further isolating troops.
According to military analysis published by DeepState, roughly two-thirds of Ukrainian forces in Kursk are nearly encircled, with their only remaining connection to friendly units being a narrow land corridor approximately one kilometer long and less than 500 meters wide.
Russian forces are actively working to sever this route.
Strategic Dilemma for Ukraine
The worsening battlefield conditions leave Ukraine’s military leadership with difficult choices. A withdrawal could severely impact troop morale and deal a political blow to President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Some believe the contested territory might be used as a bargaining chip in future negotiations with Russia, especially as pressure mounts from U.S. President Donald Trump to broker a ceasefire.
On the other hand, a full encirclement would force Ukraine into a devastating scenario where troops are either captured or killed. A potential counteroffensive to reopen supply lines remains an option, but analysts warn of significant risks.
“The Situation is Very Bad”
Finnish military analyst Pasi Paroinen told Reuters that "the situation [for Ukraine] is very bad." He warned that without reinforcements or a successful counterattack, Ukrainian troops face imminent encirclement or a dangerous retreat under constant Russian drone and artillery fire.
As the battle for Kursk intensifies, the coming days could be decisive in determining whether Ukraine can hold its ground or will be forced into a retreat that could reshape the front lines of the ongoing war.
