Russian forces in Ukraine are anticipating a slowdown in combat operations this fall as heavy rains and muddy conditions impact maneuverability.
Heavy Rains Create Break
Deputy Commander of Russia’s Eastern Military Grouping Lieutenant General Roman Grekov was speaking at the educational forum "Knowledge. First."
He highlighted that worsening weather conditions in the region are expected to create serious obstacles for both Russian and Ukrainian forces, particularly in eastern Ukraine.
“The unique soil conditions in this area make it extremely difficult to operate heavy weaponry, wheeled and tracked vehicles, and even personnel,” Grekov noted, according to URA.
Moving through the mud creates a logistical challenge, he explained, complicating operations and potentially forcing both sides to scale back offensives.
“We’re now in the third year of this conflict and have already seen similar autumn pauses in 2022 and 2023. We expect a similar, inevitable pause in combat this season,” he said.
9,000 Civilian Casualties
The war, which began in February 2022, has exacted a heavy toll on both sides. According to U.S. and European intelligence estimates, Russian forces have suffered approximately 150,000 casualties, including both killed and wounded.
Ukrainian losses are also significant, with estimates ranging around 70,000–100,000 casualties.
Civilian casualties in Ukraine are estimated to be over 9,000, according to the United Nations, though these numbers could be higher due to unreported cases in heavily affected areas.
Throughout the conflict, Ukraine has seen extensive damage to infrastructure, with entire cities in eastern Ukraine, such as Mariupol and Bakhmut, facing near-total destruction.
Both sides have used heavy artillery, drones, and advanced missile systems, contributing to high casualty rates and logistical strain.
