As Russia’s war in Ukraine grinds into its fourth year, military analysts say Moscow may have found its most effective battlefield strategy yet—the “offensive triangle”.
Coined by experts at the UK’s Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), the tactic combines infantry assaults, drone warfare, and glide bomb strikes into a synchronized assault that is gradually grinding down Ukrainian defenses—and drawing close attention from NATO.
Though not yet decisive in breaking Ukrainian lines, the strategy has allowed slow territorial gains, and its growing effectiveness has exposed vulnerabilities in traditional defensive operations.
The Triangle: Three Coordinated Layers of Attack
According to Business Insider, the strategy operates on three interlocking fronts:
Pinned by Infantry and Armor: Russian infantry and mechanized units continue to tie down Ukrainian ground forces along the front line. These ground troops don’t always seek breakthroughs—instead, their role is often to fix Ukrainian units in place, making them vulnerable to the other components of the attack.
Attrition Through Drones and Artillery: While Ukrainian forces are held down, FPV drones, Lancet kamikaze drones, and long-range artillery target them relentlessly. These attacks aim to wear down equipment, personnel, and morale. Scattered mines launched by artillery make maneuvering even more dangerous.
Destruction by Glide Bombs: The most destructive element is the mass deployment of UMPK glide bombs—Soviet-era iron bombs retrofitted with wings and GPS guidance kits. Russian aircraft can drop these from well outside the range of Ukraine’s air defense systems, causing massive damage even without pinpoint accuracy.
Together, these three prongs present what RUSI describes as a “conflicting dilemma” for Ukraine’s defenders:
“Should the Ukrainian armed forces invest in static positions to resist drones and artillery, or stay mobile to avoid being obliterated by glide bombs that can demolish even hardened bunkers?”
Return of the Russian Air Force
What’s changed in recent months is the increased role of the Russian air force, which had largely stayed out of direct action due to Ukraine’s effective air defenses.
The glide bombs have changed that calculus.
Cheap to produce and launched from long distances, the bombs are simple yet powerful. While less precise than their U.S. counterparts like the JDAM (Joint Direct Attack Munition), they deliver massive explosions, capable of destroying fortifications even with near misses.
Russia’s domestic production of UMPK kits has surged, with output expected to rise from 40,000 units in 2024 to 70,000 in 2025, according to RUSI.
Tactical Impact on Ukraine
The effectiveness of the “offensive triangle” is reshaping Ukrainian battlefield behavior.
According to reports, troops are avoiding detection at all costs. They are moving underground or dispersing to avoid being targeted, and relying increasingly on drones and unmanned systems to return fire.
Ukraine’s defenses, previously resilient against disorganized Russian assaults, now face pressure from well-coordinated combined arms operations that exploit every angle of vulnerability.
Why NATO Should Pay Attention
Western experts believe NATO has reason to be concerned. Although glide bombs are nothing new, Russia’s use of cheap, mass-produced variants in high volume represents a tactical shift that could challenge even NATO’s forward defenses in a conflict.
The U.S. and allies already possess their own glide bomb technology, but the war in Ukraine has demonstrated the strategic value of producing them affordably and at scale.
“What Russia is doing now is what it should have done from the beginning—applying coordinated ground and air attacks,” said one analyst cited by Business Insider.
Military planners across NATO are now studying Russia’s evolving tactics, not only to counter them in Ukraine, but also to prepare for potential future conflicts where overwhelming drone strikes and cheap air-delivered munitions may become the norm.
