Russia’s war in Ukraine, which has now dragged on for over 930 days, is no longer just about military tactics or territorial gains.
Forcing Putin to Confront Truth
The most crucial battlefield in this ongoing conflict is not the cities of Kursk or Kyiv, but the psychological warfare within Vladimir Putin’s own mind. According to an analysis by CEPA, the Russian leader’s fear of what Ukraine might do next is now a central concern.
Authoritarian leaders like Putin often project an image of control and certainty, believing their governance is more effective than democratic systems. However, they are also highly vulnerable to their own fears and uncertainties.
Ukraine has capitalized on this, forcing Putin to confront the uncomfortable truth: despite his large-scale invasion launched in February 2022, he has not been able to defeat Ukraine or significantly weaken it.
Particularly Unsettling
In Kursk, the presence of 20,000 Ukrainian troops serves as a form of psychological warfare.
For dictators like Putin, who regularly use psychological manipulation to control their own populations, this turn of events is particularly unsettling. He now finds himself on the defensive, unsure of whether he can rely on his military to protect Russian territory.
The Russian leader is also grappling with how to explain to his people why foreign troops are now operating within Russian borders—a scenario meant to be prevented by his "special military operation."
Ukrainian drones have already struck Russian oil refineries, threatening Russia’s economy. However, foreign troops on Russian soil pose a deeper challenge to the Kremlin’s authority, as defending national sovereignty is a key responsibility of any government.
Critics argue that Putin’s failure to shift troops from eastern Ukraine highlights his strategy of keeping Ukraine on the defensive.
