The possibility of a European country independently developing nuclear weapons is re-emerging amid geopolitical instability and doubts over future American guarantees.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk recently hinted at this when calling for Poland to obtain “the most advanced capabilities, including nuclear and unconventional weapons,” as reported by HotNews.ro.
Technological and Political Hurdles
According to nuclear policy researcher Fabian Rene Hoffmann, most European states lack both the infrastructure and political will to pursue nuclear weapons.
Civilian nuclear programs in countries like Sweden and Finland rely on light-water reactors unsuitable for military-grade plutonium production, and none possess the chemical reprocessing facilities necessary to separate weapons-grade isotopes.
Germany is an exception—but a limited one. Though it has dismantled most of its nuclear infrastructure, it retains a sizable stockpile of highly enriched uranium for research. This could, in theory, be repurposed for a small arsenal of up to 15 warheads, Hoffmann notes. However, such a stockpile would fall short of enabling a robust deterrent force.
France and the Future of European Deterrence
France’s nuclear arsenal remains independent of NATO and is considered more versatile than Britain’s submarine-based deterrent, which relies partly on U.S. technology.
There have been discussions about deploying French warheads forward in Eastern Europe, though Hoffmann cautions that doing so would require new infrastructure and might offer little strategic advantage unless placed near frontline states like Poland.
Post-Cold War treaties—such as the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty—continue to discourage nuclear expansion, and any move by a European state to build weapons would mark a break with decades of policy.
Modern Risks and Old Lessons
New technologies like 3D printing and AI are complicating global nonproliferation efforts, making it theoretically easier for determined actors to bypass traditional controls.
South Africa’s Cold War-era nuclear program, which succeeded using low-cost enrichment methods, is often cited as proof that even heavily monitored states can find a path to proliferation.
Nonetheless, experts agree that secret development in Europe is nearly impossible due to strict oversight by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Any future decision to pursue nuclear arms would almost certainly be public—and politically explosive.
The direction taken by Washington and Moscow in the coming years could ultimately decide whether any European state dares to cross that nuclear threshold.
