The ongoing tariff conflict between the United States and the European Union is putting at risk an estimated $9.5 trillion in annual transatlantic business, according to a new report from the American Chamber of Commerce to the EU (AmCham EU).
The report highlights the growing strain on what is considered the world’s most significant trade relationship.
A Trade Relationship Under Threat
AmCham EU, which represents 160 major companies, including Apple, ExxonMobil, and Visa, noted that 2024 saw record-high trade exchanges between the U.S. and EU, reaching $2 trillion. However, 2025 presents both opportunities and significant risks, the report warns. As reported by Digi24, the past week has seen escalating tensions, with Washington imposing additional tariffs on steel and aluminum.
In response, the EU is preparing countermeasures, while President Donald Trump has threatened 200% tariffs on European wines and spirits.
Trump has frequently criticized the trade deficit between the U.S. and the EU, despite the fact that the U.S. maintains a surplus in services trade.
Investment Ties Deeper Than Exports
The report emphasizes that trade is only one aspect of the U.S.-EU economic relationship. Investment flows between the two regions are even more significant, contrary to the perception that capital primarily moves toward lower-cost emerging markets.
Sales by American subsidiaries in Europe are four times larger than U.S. exports to the continent, while European subsidiaries in the U.S. generate three times more revenue than European exports to America. AmCham EU warns that the escalating trade war could disrupt these deeply interconnected business networks.
Beyond Trade: Wider Economic Implications
Daniel Hamilton, the report’s lead author, pointed out that the tariff conflict could impact trade flows equivalent to 90% of Ireland’s total commerce and 60% of Germany’s. He also cautioned that the consequences will extend beyond trade in goods, affecting services, data exchanges, and energy markets.
Europe, which heavily relies on American liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, could face disruptions if the dispute escalates further. "The ripple effects of this trade war will not be limited to tariffs alone. They will spread across various sectors, making global interactions far more complex," Hamilton warned.
Additionally, he highlighted the risk of supply chain inefficiencies. For example, BMW exports vehicles from the U.S. to global markets, leveraging transatlantic supply chains. "I don’t believe we will see isolated investments. This will create major inefficiencies," Hamilton concluded.
As tensions rise, businesses on both sides of the Atlantic are bracing for uncertainty, with potential long-term consequences for the global economy.
