Analyst Reveals Russia’s True Goal in Ukraine Isn’t About Land

Written by Kathrine Frich

Dec.16 - 2024 4:37 PM CET

War
Photo: Kremlin.ru / Wikimedia Commons
Photo: Kremlin.ru / Wikimedia Commons
A Danish military analyst argues that Russia’s real objective is far more strategic.

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Russia is often associated with its vast landscape, rich culture, and, famously, its vodka.

But beyond its iconic exports, the country has long been driven by an ambition to control the political dynamics of its neighbors.

Nowhere is this clearer than in Ukraine, where a brutal war continues to unfold.

While many in the West see this conflict as a territorial battle, Danish military analyst Anders Puck Nielsen argues that Russia’s real objective is far more strategic — and political.

“The biggest misconception about this war is that it’s primarily about territory,” Nielsen explained on his YouTube channel, which has over 200,000 subscribers.

“The war is really about political influence over all of Ukraine.”

When Vladimir Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Nielsen says his goal wasn’t to annex the entire country.

Instead, Putin aimed to install a pro-Russian government.

“It was never about making Ukraine formally part of Russia. It was about ensuring Ukraine would remain politically subordinate to Moscow, even while appearing independent,” he explained.

This approach aligns with Russia’s broader concept of the “near abroad” — a sphere of influence that includes neighboring states like Ukraine, where Moscow seeks to dictate key political and security decisions.

The Risk in Peace Talks

While Russia’s initial plans faltered, the war has dragged into a prolonged conflict of attrition. Yet Nielsen insists the Kremlin’s objectives haven’t changed. “The fighting is a means to pressure Ukraine and the international community,” he said.

Moscow, Nielsen argues, wouldn’t be satisfied with keeping occupied territories.

“For Putin, a loss would be a stable, prosperous Ukraine aligned with the West. That’s why destabilizing the country is critical to their goals,” he added.

As peace discussions gain traction globally, Nielsen warns that the West may misread Russia’s aims.

“Many proposed peace plans could leave Ukraine destabilized and politically unsustainable. That’s exactly what Russia wants,” he stated.

For Ukraine, the stakes go beyond territory. Any deal must secure its independence and stability—anything less, Nielsen warns, risks handing victory to Moscow.

War