High-ranking U.S. military officials, including Generals Philip Breedlove and Ben Hodges, have outlined a grim scenario in which Russia could launch an attack on Latvia and Lithuania by 2027.
10 Days for Forces to Arrive
According Digi24 Russia would use its exclave Kaliningrad and neighboring Belarus as strategic points to invade the Baltic nations, both members of NATO.
In this scenario, Russia would start an offensive, rapidly overwhelming Latvia within three days while simultaneously launching an attack on Lithuania.
NATO forces stationed in the region would be forced to retreat temporarily until reinforcements could arrive under Article 5, the mutual defense clause of the alliance.
The report estimates that it could take up to 10 days for NATO's main forces to arrive, during which time the Baltic states would be vulnerable.
A Grim Simulation
Germany’s Bundeswehr, with about 800 troops currently stationed in Lithuania as part of NATO’s forward presence, would play a key role in the defense. By 2027, the German contingent is expected to increase to 4,800 soldiers with 44 Leopard 2 tanks.
According to the simulation, a German tank battalion would help stop Russia’s advance into Lithuania, while additional NATO forces would launch counteroffensives.
The simulated battle would lead to heavy casualties on both sides. The Lithuanian forces, along with NATO allies, would lose 17 tanks, 145 armored vehicles, and over 3,600 soldiers. Meanwhile, Russia would suffer the loss of over 400 tanks, 1,000 armored vehicles, and 11,000 troops.
However, the scenario suggests that Lithuania would be "devastated and partially occupied" before NATO could fully intervene.
Despite the dire predictions, military officials believe this scenario can be avoided. They argue that increasing defense spending to 4% of GDP and enhancing NATO’s rapid response capabilities would prevent such an outcome.
