The Kremlin is working to influence US President Donald Trump, aiming to pressure him into accepting Vladimir Putin’s terms while elevating Putin’s global standing, according to a January 30 report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts at ISW examined a recent TASS interview with Fyodor Lukyanov, a sanctioned Kremlin propagandist and the scientific director of the Valdai Discussion Club.
The interview, titled “Don’t Expect Major Agreements,” suggests that Russia is actively shaping both domestic and international narratives around potential Trump-Putin negotiations.
The Valdai Discussion Club, where Lukyanov holds a senior role, serves as a platform for Kremlin-aligned scholars, officials, and foreign analysts to discuss global affairs. ISW notes that Russia has long used Valdai to shape Western perspectives in its favor.
Lukyanov has moderated Putin’s annual speeches at Valdai multiple times, and while he does not hold an official government role, his views closely mirror official Kremlin messaging.
ISW analysts warn that the Kremlin views Trump as more vulnerable to intimidation tactics than the previous Biden administration. Lukyanov’s statements suggest that the Kremlin believes Trump is willing to sideline NATO and Ukraine in order to reduce US involvement in the war.
Lukyanov argued in the interview that Trump wants to shift responsibility for Ukraine entirely onto Europe, claiming that the former president does not respect NATO or European allies. He even suggested that Trump might compromise NATO’s core principles to appease Putin’s demand for a NATO withdrawal from Eastern Europe.
According to Lukyanov, Trump only respects those who show unwavering strength, advising the Kremlin to “never give in” and prepare for a “tough conversation, including elements of bluffing”.
Kremlin Signals No Compromise
During the interview, Lukyanov downplayed territorial disputes, claiming that the “real issue” in peace talks is not land, but NATO expansion. He portrayed NATO’s growth in the 1990s and early 2000s as the true cause of Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Lukyanov further stated that for Russia, territorial concerns are already settled, declaring, “With territories, everything is clear: however much you take, that’s how much you get.”
This signals that Moscow has no intention of negotiating over occupied Ukrainian land.
Trump’s Approach
Trump has previously indicated that he would impose new sanctions on Russia if Putin refuses to engage in negotiations over Ukraine.
He has reportedly tasked retired Lt. General Keith Kellogg, his special envoy to Ukraine, with securing a resolution to the war within 100 days.
However, ISW warns that Russia’s strategic messaging aims to manipulate Trump into accepting concessions, potentially weakening NATO and emboldening Putin’s long-term geopolitical ambitions.
