According to a recent report by the US intelligence, Russia has incurred significant losses in its war against Ukraine, with approximately 300,000 troops lost since the conflict began. Despite these substantial casualties, which include both fatalities and injuries, time appears to be shifting in favor of Russian President Vladimir Putin's long-term strategic calculations.
Escalating Losses and Strategic Setbacks
The intelligence report, referenced by "European Truth," states that Russia has faced its greatest losses since World War II, with thousands of tanks and armored vehicles destroyed. Despite these setbacks, including an inability to fully occupy Ukraine and challenges such as personnel shortages, military exhaustion, and low morale among troops, Russia seems to be adapting its strategy.
A Change in Momentum
Recent assessments indicate that Russian forces have managed to disrupt Ukraine's summer counteroffensive operations, subtly tilting the battlefield dynamics. The Russian defense industry's gradual increase in the production of long-range weapons and artillery is poised to bolster Russia's capacity for sustained high-intensity combat.
Moreover, since the end of 2023, Moscow has made incremental but consistent gains on the battlefield. These developments are coupled with growing uncertainties regarding the extent of Western support for Ukraine, potentially benefiting Russia's strategic position.
"President Volodymyr Putin probably believes that Russia thwarted Ukraine's attempts to win back significant territories, that his calculation for victory in this war also works with the West, in particular, American aid to Ukraine is limited, especially against the background of the war between Israel and Hamas," the US intelligence reports suggest.
The Broader Context
The intelligence community also posits that Russia is likely to avoid direct military confrontation with NATO, favoring "asymmetric measures" instead.
Previous estimates from Lithuanian intelligence suggest that Russia could sustain its military operations in Ukraine for at least two more years, indicating a protracted conflict with uncertain outcomes.
As the situation continues to evolve, the international community remains vigilant, monitoring the developments and the potential implications for global stability and security.
