Ukraine Faces Dark Winter Ahead as Three Major Threats Converge

Written by Kathrine Frich

Nov.05 - 2024 8:56 AM CET

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Photo: Wikimedia Commons
Photo: Wikimedia Commons
This will be the toughest winter yet for Ukrainian civilians.

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As Ukraine enters its third winter of war, President Volodymyr Zelensky faces some of the conflict’s harshest challenges yet.

Intensified Drone Attacks

Experts report a sense of pessimism growing in Washington and Kyiv amid fears of worsening energy shortages, renewed Russian advances in eastern Ukraine, and the uncertain outcome of the upcoming U.S. elections, which could affect military aid.

The ongoing Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure have already left 50% of the country’s power grid in ruins, according to Ziare.

With intensified Russian drone attacks — rising from 350 in July to over 2,000 in October — regions like Sumy and Poltava have experienced prolonged blackouts.

Interim CEO of Ukrenergo, Oleksii Brekht, has warned that the country could face daily power cuts lasting up to eight hours this winter.

Ghosts Towns

“This will be the toughest winter yet for Ukrainian civilians since Russia’s invasion began,” said Ukrainian geopolitical analyst Viktor Kovalenko.

He noted that the extent of damage to Ukraine’s energy grid is so severe that some facilities may never be rebuilt, with large metropolitan areas in Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv potentially becoming “ghost towns” as people flee due to cold and scarcity.

On the battlefield, Russia has made recent gains in the Donetsk region, pressing toward the strategic logistics hub of Pokrovsk.

These advances come at a high cost for Moscow but threaten to bolster its hold on Donbas, impacting morale among Ukrainian troops, according to Simon Schlegel, a senior Ukraine analyst with the International Crisis Group.

Adding to Ukraine’s troubles is the looming uncertainty around U.S. military support.

Former President Donald Trump, who has expressed criticism of America’s continued aid to Ukraine and even partially blamed Ukraine for the conflict, is a leading candidate in the Republican primary.

His potential return to office has left Kyiv anxious about the future of American support.

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