The world’s authoritarian leaders often project strength, but their power can crumble unexpectedly.
Bashar al-Assad of Syria has been granted temporary asylum in Moscow. This raises a bigger question: where would Vladimir Putin go if his closest allies turned against him?
Harvard professor Walter Clemens has explored this scenario and shared some possible answers, writes Ziare.
The Russian president has kept his grip on power by buying the loyalty of smaller factions in Moscow.
However, these same groups could abandon him if the war in Ukraine drains Russia’s economy and military strength further.
Clemens points out that totalitarian regimes, like Assad’s in Syria, often collapse under the weight of internal weaknesses.
Putin might retreat to a secluded area within Russia, the world’s largest country. But even that option isn’t entirely safe.
Many Russians are grieving the loss of family members in the war, and public anger is growing.
His luxurious palaces near the Black Sea and Moscow could also put him at risk, given Ukraine’s highly capable assassins and the growing discontent around him.
Belarus might seem like a logical choice. Its leader, Alexander Lukashenko, is a staunch ally.
But Belarus is close to NATO countries like Poland and Ukraine, which makes it a dangerous option.
Tehran could be another refuge, but Iran’s government is facing increasing instability, which makes its future uncertain.
China offers another possibility. Xi Jinping has maintained close ties with Putin as part of their shared rivalry with the West.
However, welcoming Putin might bring political embarrassment for Beijing. China is already managing tense relations with the U.S. and may not want another complication.
India is another potential option. While New Delhi has benefitted from discounted Russian oil, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is careful not to side too openly with Moscow.
Hosting a leader wanted by the International Criminal Court would be unlikely.
North Korea could welcome Putin, as Kim Jong Un disregards global opinion. Yet living under Kim’s rule would likely feel humiliating for Putin.
Cuba, on the other hand, could be a viable choice. Its long-standing defiance of American influence and strong security apparatus might offer some safety.
Ultimately, none of these options are ideal. Clemens even humorously suggests that, under the right circumstances, Putin could end up at Mar-a-Lago, visiting his former ally Donald Trump.
