Once a formidable powerhouse of missile technology, Russia's intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) program now faces serious setbacks. Its latest RS-28 Sarmat missile, nicknamed "Satan 2" by NATO, has encountered repeated technical failures.
A Historical Dependence on Ukraine
For decades, Russia relied on Ukrainian expertise and infrastructure for its ICBM program. According to Digi24, much of the Soviet Union’s missile production was based in Ukraine, including factories like Pivdenmash (Yuzhmash), which designed and maintained the older R-36 missiles.
However, when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, Ukraine severed all military cooperation, cutting off access to vital know-how. Timothy Wright, a missile expert from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, explained that Russia was forced to accelerate its efforts to replace Ukrainian technology after 2014. "Ukrainians terminated nearly all ICBM maintenance contracts," he said.
Russia's switch to liquid-fuel propulsion for Sarmat—a technology Ukraine had previously handled—has worsened delays. Wright described this decision as "a very strange choice" given Russia’s lack of recent experience with such systems.
Technical Failures and Economic Struggles
A catastrophic test failure in September added to the Sarmat program's woes. Satellite imagery revealed a massive crater at Russia's Plesetsk Cosmodrome, signaling an explosion during a launch. This followed a series of postponed and failed flight tests, noted the Royal United Services Institute in London.
Despite heavy investment and propaganda surrounding the missile, experts believe Russia lacks the resources to resolve these issues quickly. Fabian Hoffmann, a missile analyst at the Oslo Nuclear Project, said Russia's financial constraints and dwindling expertise have hampered progress. "Their means are very limited," Hoffmann noted.
Sarmat was intended to replace the aging R-36, but delays have forced the Soviet-era missile to remain in service. Wright emphasized that the R-36 "has far exceeded its operational lifespan." With mounting technical setbacks, Russia's ICBM capabilities face an uncertain future.
For more details, read the full article on Digi24.
