A recent Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) report titled "Nuclear Challenges: The Growing Capabilities of Strategic Competitors and Regional Rivals" explores China’s accelerated nuclear advancements, which now pose significant challenges to U.S. military strategy.
China’s Expanding Arsenal
In the report, China is singled out for its unprecedented expansion, as its arsenal has grown from approximately 200 operational nuclear warheads in 2020 to around 500 today. The DIA projects China could have over 1,000 warheads by 2030 — exceeding prior estimates, according to WP.
China’s recent progress reflects an ambitious push to develop its nuclear triad, integrating capabilities across its military branches. China’s existing nuclear arsenal includes:
Air-launched ballistic missiles (ALBM)
Hypersonic glide vehicles (HGV)
Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM)
Intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBM)
Medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBM)
Submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM)
The report also details that China has recently deployed two additional JIN-class nuclear submarines, bringing its SSBN (nuclear ballistic missile submarine) fleet to six.
These submarines enhance China’s deterrent capabilities and bolster its nuclear forces in potential conflict zones, adding to its growing stockpile of DF-26 IRBMs. These missiles, which can reach up to 4,000 km, are dual-capable — meaning they can be equipped with both conventional and nuclear warheads.
Strategic Shifts and Future Ambitions
China’s nuclear ambitions suggest a deep commitment to matching the United States in strategic power. The report notes that China is actively modernizing its military technologies, including hypersonic vehicles and H-6N bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons.
These vehicles can reach speeds of Mach 10-20, making them extremely difficult to intercept, and are capable of various in-flight maneuvers.
Although China officially maintains a “no first use” (NFU) policy, the DIA report raises questions about its broader strategic intentions.
China’s nuclear stance allows for retaliatory strikes against non-nuclear threats, especially if its nuclear infrastructure or command structures are endangered. The report suggests that, in a Taiwan conflict, China might consider nuclear options if conventional defeat threatens the regime.
