Oil prices held steady on Thursday, January 30, as markets weighed the impact of Donald Trump’s renewed tariff threats against Canada and Mexico, the two largest crude oil suppliers to the U.S.
Investors also awaited an upcoming OPEC+ meeting, where global oil producers will discuss production strategies in response to shifting U.S. policies.
Oil Prices Show Minimal Movement
According to Reuters, Brent crude futures dipped slightly by 7 cents (0.1%) to $76.51 per barrel, while U.S. crude futures edged down 2 cents (0.03%) to $72.64. These prices follow a broader decline, with U.S. crude hitting its lowest price of the year on Wednesday.
Concerns over Trump’s tariff threats have fueled market uncertainty.
White House spokeswoman Caroline Levitt confirmed Tuesday that Trump remains committed to imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting Saturday.
The situation escalated further when Howard Lutnick, Trump’s nominee for Commerce Secretary, stated that Canada and Mexico could avoid the tariffs if they tighten border security against fentanyl trafficking.
He also emphasized a tough stance on China’s advancements in artificial intelligence — a policy that could further impact global trade dynamics.
Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 3.46 million barrels last week, aligning closely with analyst expectations of 3.19 million barrels.
In response to recent U.S. sanctions, Russia announced an 8% cut in crude exports from its western ports for February.
OPEC+ Braces for Trump’s Policy Shift
All eyes are now on the February 3 OPEC+ meeting, where oil ministers will assess Trump’s push for increased U.S. production. The former president has urged OPEC — especially Saudi Arabia — to lower oil prices, claiming that doing so could help end the conflict in Ukraine.
Trump has also laid out plans to maximize U.S. oil and gas output, which could disrupt global supply balances. However, experts doubt the likelihood of a full-blown price war between the U.S. and OPEC+.
A potential price war would lead OPEC+ producers to ramp up output to drive down prices, which in turn could undermine U.S. shale oil production.
BMI analysts (Fitch Group) caution that if OPEC+ deploys its spare capacity of over 5 million barrels per day, Brent crude prices could plummet below $50 per barrel — a scenario that would hit the U.S. shale industry hard.
