Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to maintain a firm grip on power as the war in Ukraine drags on.
But Putin's position may not survive if Russia loses the war in Ukraine, according to Kaupo Rosin, the head of Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service.
In an interview with DW’s Conflict Zone on October 3, Rosin said Russia's defeat could spark internal upheaval and force Putin to confront political consequences.
“I don’t think Putin will survive Russia’s defeat,” Rosin stated, emphasizing that the war's outcome will heavily shape Russia’s future actions.
“The big question is how the conflict in Ukraine ends. If Russia emerges victorious and confident, it will base all future calculations on this scenario,” he said.
Rosin's remarks follow a February 2024 report from Estonia’s intelligence agency, which suggested that Moscow is preparing for potential military confrontation with NATO within the next decade.
According to Rosin, Russia's current efforts are focused on rebuilding its military, with several hundred thousand soldiers added since the start of the invasion of Ukraine, as well as ramping up ammunition and weapons production.
However, he believes Russia will struggle to recover from the losses in both manpower and equipment it has sustained during the war.
Western intelligence, including reports from the UK, also suggests that Russia has been experiencing its highest daily losses for months, which could make it difficult for Moscow to sustain its military efforts in the long term.
Rosin's comments come amid continued concerns that Russia, in a desperate scenario, could escalate its conflict with the West, possibly triggering a broader confrontation with NATO.
